What is the (G)BRAG
Report?
Last June, the Greater Boston Research Advisory Group (GBRAG) published its report, Climate Change Impacts and Projections for the Greater Boston Area. The report, which
looks at the impacts of climate change on the 101 cities and towns that make up the Metropolitan Area Planning Council’s region, provides updated projections for inland flooding and extreme precipitation, extreme heat, and sea level rise and coastal flooding.
The report is a follow-up
to a 2016 report of the Boston Research Advisory Group (BRAG), which was the
first effort to provide more specific projections of the impacts of climate
change on Boston through the year 2100.
The 2016 report became a planning document for the City and formed the
basis for Climate
Ready Boston, an ongoing neighborhood-by-neighborhood initiative to prepare
Boston for the future impacts of climate change.
The report gained
significant traction outside of Boston, for good reason, and is used regularly
by several other cities and agencies to develop regulations and policies,
vulnerability assessments, and local resilience and adaptation plans. The June 2022 GBRAG Report is significant for
two reasons: it updates the 2016 projections and provides a wider lens of the
impacts of climate change on the entire Greater Boston region.
Updated Climate Change
Projections
The GBRAG Report predicts
more extreme precipitation events will result from climate change, leading to more
inland flooding from rivers and stormwater overflow. Existing and ongoing greenhouse gas emissions
will continue to contribute to more extreme heat events. The GBRAG Report predicts that there will be
more than 20 days of 90-degree heat each year by 2040, more than 31 such days
by 2080, and more than 33 by 2100, under an intermediate emissions
scenario. Under the high emissions
scenario, the Greater Boston region could experience more than 62 days of
90-degree heat per year by 2100.
One of the more
significant updates, which could have immediate planning and land-use
permitting implications, is the GBRAG Report’s updates to coastal flooding
projections caused by a combination of increasing sea level rise and storm
surges. Through 2050, the GBRAG Report
now projects flood heights to be 2 to 16 centimeters higher than the 2016
projections under the intermediate emissions scenario and 5 to 26 centimeters
higher under the high emissions scenario.
What does this mean for
local permitting?
The GBRAG Report and the
updated coastal flooding projections could bring changes to permitting
requirements for developers pursuing projects in Boston. If you are a project proponent or consultant,
here are a couple areas to watch out for:
Boston Zoning Code’s
Coastal Flood Resilience Overlay District, Article 25A
In Fall 2021, the Boston
Zoning Code was amended to add Article 25A and create the Coastal Flood
Resilience Overlay District (CFROD). The
boundaries of the CFROD are based on the extent of flooding for the 1% annual
chance coastal flood event in 2070, factoring in 40 inches of sea-level rise.
Article 25A generally applies
to projects that (1) increase gross floor area by at least 20,000 square feet,
(2) add 15 or more dwelling units, (3) result in a substantial rehabilitation
of, or resulting in, at least 100,000 square feet of gross floor area, or (4) establish
or change a use of 50,000 square feet outside Downtown or 100,000 square feet
in Downtown.
Projects subject to
Article 25A are required to include 1-2 feet of freeboard above the base flood
elevation in 2070, accounting for projected sea level rise, and undergo
resilience review similar to that under Article 80’s small and large project
review. Under resilience review, a
developer must demonstrate to the Boston Planning & Development Agency that
the project incorporates best practices and standards to reduce or eliminate
coastal flood risk or damage from future climate conditions, relying on the
most recent flood hazard modeling and mapping data.
The GBRAG Report could
mean two things for developers when they consider Article 25A compliance.
First, the increased coastal flooding projections could affect the boundary of
the CFROD and expand the number of private property owners subject to Article
25A’s minimum design flood elevation requirements and resilience review. Article 25A allows the Building Commissioner to
adjust the boundary and determine that a site is within or outside the CFROD if
information on sea level rise or storm surge does not reflect actual site
conditions. The Building Commissioner’s
decision to include or exclude a property from the CFROD is appealable to the
Zoning Board of Appeal. Second, the
increased coastal flooding projections could mean that projects within the
CFROD may be subject to heightened design flood elevation requirements of 1-2
feet of freeboard above the updated projections.
Boston Wetlands
Protection Ordinance
In 2019, the Boston City
Council enacted an Ordinance Protecting Local Wetlands and Promoting Climate
Change Adaptation in the City of Boston.
The Ordinance prohibits work or activities in defined wetland resource
areas without first filing a permit application, called a Notice of Intent,
with the Boston Conservation Commission.
The Ordinance creates a resource area called the Coastal Flood
Resilience Zone (CFRZ), which is defined as the area beyond the existing
floodplain which the Commission determines has a reasonable probability of
becoming subject to coastal storm flooding due to sea level rise within the
next 50 years. As with the CFROD, the
increased coastal flooding projections could affect the boundary of the CFRZ
and expand the number of private property owners subject to local wetlands
permitting.
Regardless of whether
your project falls within the CFRZ, property owners and developers subject to
local wetlands permitting need to be familiar with the GBRAG Report because the
Ordinance requires every project proponent to integrate climate change and
adaptation planning considerations into the project. These considerations include the impacts of
sea level rise and changes in coastal flooding.
Sammy Nabulsi
is a partner at Rose Law Partners LLP in Boston. His practice focuses on land
use, environmental, and real estate permitting and litigation. He is a new member of REBA and can be reached
at ssn@rose-law.net.
